On the 24th. of November the (country credit agency) Moody’s issued a ‘Rating Action’ on Belize and downgraded it from ‘Caa1’ to ‘Caa3’. – And, a day later, on November 25th. Moody’s issued a rating opinion of ‘Stable’.
The 1st. Rating Article on Nov. 24th. with a Heading of:
Moody’s downgrades Belize’s ratings to Caa3; changes outlook to stable
The 2nd. Opinion Article on Nov. 25th.
Credit Opinion: Government of Belize – Caa3 stable: Update following downgrade to Caa3, outlook stable
So what does that mean, first of all we must mention that there are 3 primary Country Credit rating agencies, all based in the United States. They are –
1. Standard & Poor’s.
2. Fitch.
3. Moody’s.
They issue rating reports about the ‘CREDITWORTHINESS’ of countries and large corporations, and those reports are considered to be an authoritative guiding post to investors and financial institutions, such as Foreign Banks, International Lending Institutions, Investors and large scale prospecting Developers.
So in ‘Layman’ terms they are saying that the country might be a little ‘HaaadPay’ if you lend Belize money , but the country is stable and may get better.
Some Recent History
The last time Moody’s issued a credit review statement on Belize was May of 2020 and since then it has issued several statements of news developments and or announcements.
August, 17th. 2020
Government of Belize: Bondholders agree to interest payment relief, but debt sustainability challenges remain
June, 30th. 2020
Moody’s announces completion of a periodic review of ratings of Belize, Government of
May, 12th. 2020
Government of Belize – Caa1 negative: Update following downgrade to Caa1, outlook negative
According to the official chart above that is published by those credit rating companies, they are saying that ‘Default is Imminent’ meaning that they are sure it’s going to happen.
That of course is sad news for an authority to say that they are sure that the country of ‘Belize’ will not be able to pay past debts and money owed.
At least in the immediate future, which is the next 6-12 months.
Of the original $544-million US$ that Belize borrowed (1.088 -billion Bz$) it has repaid $580-million Bz$, ; with a balance of 810-million Bz$ still due and growing with interest.
The Origins Of The ‘SUPERBOND’ & How It Was Created
To get a good perspective on the origins of the ‘Belize Superbond’ you have to dig way back to 2005 and then the restructuring of many debts to make up what is known as the ‘Superbond’ for some insight we look back at an article in ‘Reuters’ – quote –
“The bond, which comes due in 2038, came out of the restructuring of a previous note that itself was the consolidation of other debt in a 2007 restructuring. (Reporting by Paul Kilby; Editing by Marc Carnegie)“
Belize has plenty to offer and plenty to build upon, it’s all a matter of who is in control of the ship, navigating through these rough seas, toward calm-waters and clear-skies of prosperity in the years ahead.
But to get there we will need money. It’s like needing fuel to get to another location so that you can make money when you get there.
Belize was considered to be under difficult financial pressures even before the COVID-19 Pandemic started, and although it could never be viewed as a blessing, the view from the government of Belize’s hilltop should be: this is an opportunity to ‘Borrow and Build‘ our way out of debt, over the next 5-10 years.
But who will lend money to a country that has those current credit rating. That’s the reason the pandemic is never a blessing, but a situation that has made it more viable to borrow in this climate.
There is clean ‘Un-corrupted’ lending institutions out there in the world, and the experience of the financial technicians of Belize is most important in presenting a borrowing plan to those institutions. – To shelve old and antiquated ideas of ‘Sovereign-Fiscal-Management methods and norms. But maintain management to get good quarterly results.
As the new government came into power with a ‘PLAN BELIZE’ mandate and a promise to work. – It sure will be a time to ‘WORK HARD’.
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Editors Notes:
URL Resources:
Belize’s Debt Restructuring – Working Paper IMF
Understanding the world around us is crucial to our national stability and our democracy.
Written & Compiled by: digitalBelize,LIVE Staff writer – digitalCaribbean.live Thursday, November 27th. 2020 – digitalbelize@gmail.com